2024 Open Championship Sleeper Picks & Predictions

We’re continuing to roll out our top British Open golf picks for the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon this week. 

It’s a loaded field teeing it up in Troon with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlining as the betting favorite in the British Open odds, but we’re looking further down the board with our long shots and sleeper sections to win the final major of the season.

2024 Open Championship sleeper picks

Picks were made on 7-16 at 10:00 p.m. ET.

2024 Open Championship sleeper predictions

Tony Finau to win outright (+5,000)

Tony Finau is anything but a long shot to win this week in my mind. Oddsmakers are just seeing it a little differently, with the six-time PGA winner priced well down the board despite entering in impressive form. He’s carded three consecutive Top 10 finishes in big-field events while ranking fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, third in true strokes gained on approach, and 15th in true strokes gained putting among golfers in this field during his heater.

He also finished T18 in 2016 at Royal Troon and has another three Top 20s across six Open appearances. Additionally, Finau’s T3 last month in the U.S. Open was his 11th Top 10 in a major, so this is an elite talent who’s knocked on the door multiple times. There’s also a case that he’s heading back to Royal Troon this week playing the most well-rounded game of his career. 

Pick: Tony Finau to win outright (+5,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Tony Finau Top 40 (-105 at bet365)

Corey Conners to win outright (+7,000)

It’s all going right with Corey Conners’ game right now, and I’m particularly impressed with him finishing 17th in true strokes gained putting during his T10 showing at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. The Canadian has rolled off seven consecutive Top 40s while gaining true strokes across the board, and he also impressively ranks 10th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the heater.

Conners’ track record in majors is more solid than spectacular, but he’s improved in each this season with a strong T9 showing in the U.S. Open last month. He’s also played the weekend in each of the past three Opens, and his elite ball-striking plays anywhere. Look for another tidy week from the Canuck.

Pick: Corey Conners to win outright (+7,000 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Corey Conners Top 40 (-105 at bet365)

Adam Scott to win outright (+7,000)

We see the value of experience pay off annually in The Open, and the smooth-swinging Adam Scott enters off his best showing of the season. It took a trifecta of luck, heroics, and clutch play for Robert MacIntyre to top Scott in the Scottish Open, and I expect a quick and solid turnaround for the notoriously streaky Aussie this week at Royal Troon.

Scott gained true strokes across the board during his solo second at The Renaissance Club last week, including ranking ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in true strokes gained putting. It’s a combo that will serve him well in The Open, and his track record in this event is solid. Scott has played the weekend in 17 of 19 Opens with five Top 10 finishes.

Pick: Adam Scott to win outright (+7,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Adam Scott Top 40 (-125 at bet365)

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