Andy Sullivan can make a flying start to the British Masters, where our golf expert also has a strong view on the top Swedish player market.
Golf betting tips: British Masters specials
1pt e.w. Andy Sullivan to lead after round one at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
3pts Henrik Norlander to be the top Swedish player at 18/5 (Betfred, BetVictor)
1.5pts Marcus Kinhult to be the top Swedish player at 5/1 (Sky Bet, betway)
2pts Rikuya Hoshino to be the top Japanese player at 6/4 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
One of the biggest fears in the life of a golf punter is that last week’s man wins this week’s tournament. It’s perfectly reasonable, too, and don’t let any bore tell you otherwise. We all know there are new dynamics in play, pal. It’s still really annoying when it happens.
For me this week, the candidate who would sting most is ANDY SULLIVAN, for a few reasons. Firstly, he really should’ve landed the place money in Denmark. Secondly, I’ve been on him in this tournament before. Thirdly, this is a genuine home game, with Nuneaton a short drive from the Belfry.
The trouble is the price and the fact that, while yes we have to make allowances for some ropey data, it looks like he missed a lot of short putts last week. That club has always been a must for Sullivan to be competing with more dynamic, powerful players, and he’ll need it to fire if he’s to secure what would be by far the most significant victory of his excellent career.
In this stronger field, and with that home advantage all well and good until it’s Sunday and there’s a whole load more pressure, I’d rather back him in a different way. And where Sullivan is concerned, it just so happens that the first-round leader market has proven ideal down the years.
All told, he’s been inside the top five after round one a whopping 33 times in his DP World Tour career, topping the leaderboard on seven occasions. It’s a really strong return and so often these results have come in bunches, which makes two top-10s (in this market) in his last five starts particularly encouraging.
Sullivan’s second-round 64 last week was outrageous given the conditions so at 50/1, he’s a fun bet for the lead on Thursday.
I did also consider Pedro Figueiredo, on the back of a career-best fifth in Denmark. It’s rare for any player to be offered at such massive odds after a top-five and Figueiredo is possibly quite a nice fit for a course where his weak driving may not be a major handicap.
His form suggests otherwise, reading MC-MC-MC, but the first was as an amateur and the latter two by narrow margins. His two most notable strong starts came in this event (albeit at Close House) and at Eichenried, and he’s a 200/1 shot who could give you a bit of a run.
Swede success
While that’s speculative, I will admit to a level of confidence in either MARCUS KINHULT or HENRIK NORLANDER being the top Swedish player.
Kinhult has returned to form this summer, losing a play-off in the Netherlands and then finishing 12th on a big-hitters’ course in Prague last time. He’s a former winner of this event who, in three starts at the Belfry, has been in the mix twice.
Norlander is a PGA Tour player who arrives in good form, and whose accurate game should make the Brabazon a nice fit. Of the two he’s marginally better value despite a shorter price, but the point here is to take on Jesper Svensson and I’ll get both on-side.
Svensson was favourite heading into the final round of the Czech Masters but that course was made for him and this one isn’t. He’s a genuine powerhouse who has shot himself out of a couple of tournaments with one big score and I could see that happening around this tighter, far more penal layout.
Throw in doubts around how he’ll respond to finishing second and he’s a bad favourite. The fact that recent Challenge Tour winner Christofer Blomstrand is the pick of the other four Swedes demonstrates a lack of depth and I’ll be disappointed if we’re not on the winner.
Splitting stakes for an equal return is easy enough to do and makes for something around the 6/4 mark, but I’ll tilt mine in favour of Norlander, whose form is the best of the Swedes and whose game might be best suited to the course, too.
Andrew Johnston made some appeal at 4/1 for a top 20 but I was closer to siding with Shubhankar Sharma as top Asian player, with RIKUYA HOSHINO as a saver.
However, Sharma has made his way to favouritism and I wouldn’t be totally comfortable ruling out Gavin Green and Haotong Li at bigger odds, so if you do want to oppose Keita Nakajima, take Hoshino to be the top Japanese player instead.
Hoshino has the advantage of course experience and after a shocking fortnight under links conditions, Nakajima was well down the field in Paris. Right now, Hoshino is probably ahead of him, even if Nakajima has a much higher ceiling, and when you throw in the knowledge he was of the course, 6/4 begins to look excellent.
Finally, 9/1 for Angel Hidalgo to win a competitive top Spaniard heat came under strong consideration.
He’s playing really nicely and I think he’ll go close to winning at some stage this year. It was tempting to suggest that could happen at the Belfry, especially as the course he won at in Germany is similar, but for now I’m just going to keep an eye on him.
Hidalgo could be the pick of the Spaniards after a really poor effort from Jorge Campillo last week, although you could make a case for most of them it must be said. For that reason I’ll leave him out.
Posted at 1335 BST on 27/08/24
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