Andrew Asquith has looked over the notable races this weekend and has found two bets at Newbury on Saturday.
Weekend View: Saturday August 17
1pt e.w. Starlore in the 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 – General)
2pts win English Oak in the 3.35 Newbury at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betvictor)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
With York just around the corner, it is another tough week to try and figure out who will end up running where with several interesting horses entered this weekend also having options on the Knavesmire next week.
One horse who is apparently going to miss this weekend in favour of the City of York Stakes next week is Lake Forest, with William Haggas stating this morning he plans to run Tiber Flow in the Hungerford Stakes instead.
That news hasn’t shaken up the market as yet as Lake Forest is still favourite in many books, and with this in mind, the one who I think is overpriced is the Ed Walker-trained ENGLISH OAK at 8/1.
I was pretty strong on this horse in the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, as he’d won a handicap in a style rarely seen at Royal Ascot on his previous start, but for whatever reason, he wasn’t able to reproduce that sort of form upped into Group 2 company for the first time despite starting favourite.
Even though English Oak was below form, it was a deep renewal of the Lennox, featuring this season’s Lockinge, Criterion and John of Gaunt winners, as well as dual scorer of the race, Kinross.
However, the race wasn’t truly run, the eventual winner and second allowed an easy time of it on the front end and the high-class – on his day – Audience demonstrated a smart turn of foot to quicken up off the front end and never looked like being caught.
English Oak shaped well from further back in the field, but he faced an impossible task from his position to close down the leaders given the way the race was run, while he also didn’t seem totally at ease on the idiosyncratic track – he’s a tall colt, with plenty of substance, so it isn’t a surprise that all of his best form to date has come on more galloping tracks.
It was also his first start for over a month, too, and he just didn’t appear to be as sharp as he was at Royal Ascot, but he still managed to beat the likes of Tiber Flow and Noble Dynasty.
This will be English Oak’s first run at Newbury since his debut, but a straight, seven furlongs on likely fast ground will be right up his street and it is worth remembering how fast he was improving before his run at Goodwood.
I think he remains with the potential to develop into a Group 1 performer and, given this looks set to be a weaker field than the Lennox, he looks a solid bet to me at the prices, especially as Richard Brown, Wathnan’s European racing advisor, has stated English Oak is a likely runner.
Just 35 minutes earlier, over the same course and distance, there is the TPT Fire Handicap in which I like the claims of STARLORE, a horse who has shown on numerous occasions that he possesses plenty of ability.
He looked an exciting prospect when making a winning debut at Sandown last season, beating a few now-smart types – notably Arabian Crown – though he didn’t progress as expected on his next two starts.
Starlore didn’t shape badly on his return in a useful conditions event at Newmarket, not as well suited as some as he was held up in a steadily-run race, and that form received a boost when the second and third went on to finish first and second in a Listed event next time.
He was very easy to back on his handicap debut in a competitive event won by Qirat next time, but he didn’t half catch the eye on that occasion, and would have almost certainly given the winner something to think about with a clearer passage.
Starlore was ridden cold in the rear of the field, travelling into the straight powerfully but having a wall of horses in his way, and having to weave through the pack. He followed Qirat through but conceded first run on that rival and his jockey didn’t go for everything, either, almost accepting the fact that the winner had flown.
His latest run in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot was too bad to be true, failing to settle on his first start at a mile and never involved. There is clearly ability there, though, and I’m willing to ignore his run at Royal Ascot, as he shaped like a well-handicapped horse the time before and will be well suited by the flat seven furlongs at Newbury.
Starlore has a 5lb pull in the weights with Qirat from Goodwood, and Sir Michael Stoute is really starting to hit top form at present, so I’m hoping he will put up a bold showing.
Preview posted at 1640 BST on 13/08/2024
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