Best British Open sleepers picks and surprise long shot bet to win 2024 Open Championship | Sporting News

The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon in Scotland this week, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy the favorites to take home the Claret Jug and golf’s fourth and final major of the year. 

The world’s top two ranked golfers will certainly be two of the most popular betting picks this weekend. Scheffler has won a whopping six tournaments this year, including the Masters. McIlroy, meanwhile, just hit the 10-year anniversary of his first major — and he finished T5 at Royal Troon in 2016.

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But many bettors don’t see value in betting a guy like McIlroy at +900 outright odds, never mind a heavy favorite like Scheffler at +550. Most sharps opt instead for a few sleepers, value bets, or long-shot wagers, as well as some high-value prop picks. 

With 158 players in this weekend’s field, there will be plenty of opportunities for value bets outside of Scheffler and McIlroy. So, let’s hit BetMGM and uncover the best bets and top props for the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland. Let’s have some fun!

Open Championship 2024: Sleepers to win

Tony Finau (+4500 on BetMGM)

Finau always seems to fly under the radar, as he never seems to get TV time even when he creeps into the top 10 late in tournaments. He also tends to yield big-value outright odds in major championships, as he has still yet to win one. 

That could change this weekend in Scotland, as Royal Troon was tailor-made for big ball-strikers with solid short games like Finau. The big Utah native has also been in super-solid form over his past three starts, with a T8 at the Memorial Tournament, a T5 at the U.S. Open, and most recently a T3 at the Travelers Championship. 

Finau handles challenging course conditions and big-tournament pressure well. He’s third on the TOUR in Shots Gained: Approach (APP), eighth in SG: Total, 13th in birdie average, and top 30 in greens in regulation percentage, driving distance, and scoring average. He’s the top sleeper at Royal Troon this weekend.

Patrick Cantlay (+6600)

Cantlay has three major strengths that could come into play at Royal Troon this weekend: he’s a birdie machine, an elite putter, and a savvy scrambler. If he can use the downwind conditions of the front six to his advantage and rely on his short-game prowess on the back nine, he could easily win his ninth career tournament and first career major championship. 

Like Finau, Cantlay has been in very impressive form as of late. He has racked up four top-five finishes, including a T3 at the U.S. Open and a T5 at the Travelers over his past two starts. He also has experience playing in Scotland, finishing 12th at Carnoustie in 2018, T4 at the Scottish Open in 2022, and eighth at St. Andrews in 2022. He could be the last man standing in Troon.

Open Championship 2024: Best value bets

Collin Morikawa (+1600 on BetMGM)

The 27-year-old Morikawa nearly overtook Scheffler on the final hole of the Memorial Tournament on June 1, but Scheffler ultimately prevailed by one measly stroke. But that’s certainly not Morikawa’s sole highlight of 2024, as he has five top-five finishes over his past 10 tournaments. 

That includes a T3 at the Masters, a T4 at the PGA Championship, and a T4 at last week’s Scottish Open. Translation: he handles pressure and the windy conditions of Scotland very well. With one of the more accurate drivers on TOUR — not to mention elite putting and scrambling ability — he’s a birdie machine who can easily take down the Claret Jug this Sunday. 

Jon Rahm (+2000 on BetMGM)

Scheffler and McIlroy have captured a lot of attention on the PGA Tour lately, but Rahm might be getting a bit overlooked. The 29-year-old Spaniard from the LIV Tour already has two major championships and a T4 at the PGA Championship under his belt, and he drives the ball and hits enough greens to be considered a serious contender in Troon. 

Open Championship 2024: Highest-value long shot

Akshay Bhatia (+8000 on BetMGM) 

At just 22 years old, Bhatia has fully emerged on the PGA TOUR scene. He won the Valero Texas Open in April, and most recently he finished T5 at the Travelers Championship and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. A skinny, young, and unassuming lefty, he does a lot of things very well. 

Don’t wait for oddsmakers to catch on — throw a small bet on Bhatia now! Or, better yet, bet him +300 to finish top 20. He plays incredibly well in windy conditions, and any U.K. links fans know gusts always manage to play a part on the back nine at Royal Troon. Don’t be surprised if Akshay plays Nessie this weekend and becomes a mythical legend of Scottish links.

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Open Championship 2024: Top prop bets

Scottie Scheffler to be in the final group of Round 4 (+250 on BetMGM)

It’s difficult to put into words how great Scottie Scheffler has been over the past six months. In fact, the Sporting News’ betting team now publishes articles specifically highlighting Scheffler vs. the field in majors and pinpointing his best props. This prop makes the short list, as he’s as good a bet as anyone to be a featured player in the final round.

Take a look at Scheffler’s finishes over his past 10 tournaments: 

• Arnold Palmer Invitational: First
• THE PLAYERS Championship: First
• Texas Children’s Houston Open: T2
• The Master’s Tournament: First
• RBC Heritage: First
• PGA Championship: T8 (arrested before Round 2)
• Charles Schwab Challenge: T2
• The Memorial Tournament: First
• U.S. Open: T41
• Travelers Championship: First 

Good golly. We’re talking Tiger Woods, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, and Tom Watson territory here at this point. And while Scheffler’s +550 odds to win still seem a bit too short to be considered a slam-dunk value, betting him +250 to make the final group of the Open at least seems like a layup.

Scheffler, McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg to all make the cut (-225 on BetMGM)

You’re eating some juice if you bet this prop, but how great is the value here!? Scheffler hasn’t even come close to missing a cut all year, McIlroy finished T5 on this course at the 2016 Open, and Aberg has been one of the hottest golfers over the past two months. 

Aberg finished runner-up to Scheffler at the Masters, and he has barely slowed down since then. He also has a T5 at the Memorial, a T12 at the U.S. Open, and a T4 at last week’s Scottish Open. He led the field in Scotland in the second and third rounds, but faltered a bit in the final round as native Scot Robert MacIntyre took over the lead.

All three of these guys should be locked in this weekend, and it would be a shock if any of the three missed the cut line. Don’t focus on the juice — focus on the win probability. This is an easy bet, even if it doesn’t yield a massive payout. 

Louis Oosthuizen to finish top 20 (+225 on BetMGM)

The veteran Oosthuizen politely declined his invitation to the PGA Championship and opted to not qualify for the U.S. Open. Thus, this will be the LIV golfer’s first major of the 2024 season — and we venture to guess he will be well-prepared for the challenges of Royal Troon. 

The South African has enjoyed a fantastic season on the LIV Tour, racking up a handful of top-five finishes. The 2010 Open champion has four top-30 finishes over his past five Open starts, and he has four second-place finishes in majors to go with his Claret Jug. Don’t sleep on the 41-year-old.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to finish as the top African (+330 on DraftKings)

Bezuidenhout’s name never gets easier to type, but his game seems to keep getting better and better. The 30-year-old South African has finished T28 or better in 12 of his past 18 PGA tournaments this year, and he has four top-10 finishes worldwide in the process. 

Bezuidenhout has all the qualities bettors should be targeting at Troon, including long-iron accuracy, strong short game, bogey avoidance, and par-4 scoring. It’s tempting to bet him +300 to finish in the top 20, but it feels like more of a sure thing to go the conservative route and back him to card the lowest score out of all the African natives in the field.