England v West Indies first Test preview and best bets for Lord’s

Cricket betting tips: England v West Indies

2pts Kavem Hodge top West Indies first innings batsman at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

2pts Jason Holder top West Indies first innings bowler at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Call me a dinosaur if you want, but I don’t look forward to another sporting event more than I look forward to the first Test of the English summer. You can have your T20 World Cup and IPL, and I’ll have them, too, but there really is nothing like a first Test of the summer at Lord’s.

I prefer the term traditionalist, by the way, but there is something immensely special about a Lord’s Test match, and this week takes on even greater significance, it being the swan song for James Anderson, whose 188th Test will be his last.

I suspect there is more to come on the decision to cast Anderson aside, given that to most observers he remains the best bowler in the country, even at 41 years of age.

For the record, I can see both sides of the argument, but the bottom line is that this England team is not littered with world-class performers. Anderson remains in that bracket, for all his powers appear now to be ever so slightly on the wane, and he remains very fit, very hungry, and very good, judging by his comeback 7-35 for Lancashire last week.

It’s a decision England’s management will need to live with in the coming months, for better or worse, and all we as fans can do is enjoy the week, enjoy Anderson one last time, and, as ever, try to turn a profit in what I believe remains the best betting medium in cricket.

The other thing to say about Lord’s is that specifically in the second innings, this has generally been a good ground for runs. In the first innings we have tended to see a lot of live grass left on surfaces on day one, but that generally helps the pitches hold together for longer and once that green tinge has burned away in the sun, very good conditions for batting are usually unveiled.

Take last summer as the first example: Ireland were rolled out for 172 in the first innings against England, but managed 362 second time around. In England’s second innings of their Ashes Test with Australia, they scored 327 bating second, opposed to 325 in the first innings. It might’ve been better than that had Jonny Bairstow not lost his wicket in controversial circumstances.

In 2022, the highest total of the Lord’s Test against New Zealand came in the fourth innings when England chased down 277 for the loss of only five wickets. By the end of that match, New Zealand barely looked like taking six wickets let alone 10 in conditions that had favoured bowlers for much of the early part of the match.

In this summer’s County Championship, there have been some monster scores racked up here – Glamorgan batsman Sam Northeast making 335 not out on his own back in April – but it’s worth noting that match was played with the Kookaburra ball.

Nevertheless, we can expect a good surface to bat on, particularly later in the game, and I suspect I’ll revisit second innings runs in my in-play previews at the end of each day’s play.

For now, I like the look of a couple of West Indians in the side markets, kicking off with KAVEM HODGE for top first innings West Indies batsman at 7/1 (Sky Bet).

This book is dominated by away captain and opening batsman Kraigg Brathwaite, but facing the new Dukes ball in England can often be a thankless task, particularly up against Anderson and Chris Woakes, and I’m keen to look further down the West Indies line-up, focussing on the middle order.

I must give a quick mention to Kirk McKenzie who looked a terrific talent for much of the two-match Test series West Indies drew in Australia earlier in the year, but similar to Braithwaite, he could be up against it if batting at number three again, especially if continuing to drive with minimal footwork against the moving ball.

Braithwaite apart, this a batting unit littered with talented players who don’t boast big numbers in First Class cricket. There are a number of reasons for this, but for betting purposes, I do think this market could well be won with a half-century from someone in the middle order. Even the lower order – and I’m thinking Alzarri Joseph at a huge price – could have a chance of landing at some stage in the series.

I do like Hogde, though. His two Tests to date were littered with promise and he looked a very good, compact player when making a fine 71 against Australia’s high-class pace attack in that day/night match at the Gabba where he played the bulk off that innings under lights when conditions were the most difficult for batting.

He showcased a solid technique and lots of patience in an innings that spanned nearly five hours. I was notably impressed with how late Hodge played the ball there, a massive plus for batting in English conditions, and his composed 29 in the second innings was only cut short by an unfortunate run out.

A hundred in West Indies’ warm-up match at Beckenham last week augers well, and I’m keen to get involved at 7/1. 5/1 upwards is also fine.

The England side markets make limited appeal at this stage, for all I’m very excited to see what debutant Jamie Smith can do at this level, and my second and final bet lands on JASON HOLDER to be West Indies’ top first innings bowler.

The absence of the injured Kemar Roach will be a huge loss to the tourists and though Joseph and Shamar Joseph are two exciting, young talents who swing the ball at pace, I’d rather stick with experience in these conditions.

We saw that at Lord’s in 2019 when the wily Irishman Tim Murtagh claimed 5-13 as he swung and nibbled England out on day one, before conditions improved greatly for batting as that match wore on, and I’m betting Holder can do something similar.

A very tall man who presents a good seam at around the 80mph mark, Holder fits the mould of bowlers who have bowled well on this ground in years gone by. Think Glenn McGrath, Steve Harmison, and Josh Hazlewood. Tall, line bowlers who hammer away at the top of off stump, using the slope and getting the odd delivery to bounce on to the splice.

Holder has good experience English cricket having played 14 Tests here already, as well as a stint in the County Championship earlier this summer, and his sole previous Test at Lord’s in 2017 saw him bowl beautifully as he finished with first-innings figures of 13.5-1-54-4.

Something similar would do the job this week, and I’m hoping his greater experience of these conditions and suitability for this ground will give him the edge. 7/2 looks a good bet.

Posted at 1618 BST on 08/07/24

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