Niklas Norgaard takes a four-shot lead into the final round of the British Masters, where one of Ben Coley’s selections is in second. Get his verdict.
Niklas Norgaard is one of those golfers who wouldn’t look out of place anywhere: the PGA Tour, the Ryder Cup, contending for majors. He’s that good, at least when it comes to hitting the thing. Few can match his athletic capabilities and when it all comes together, nobody on the DP World Tour makes the task of getting ball onto green easier.
And yet he’s 32, he didn’t win on the Challenge Tour and, more than 13 years after his first title on the Nordic Golf League, he’s won nothing more significant. Why? Well, because golf is hard and because, with his putter seldom hot, his game wasn’t always seen to best effect at a lower level. Perhaps the bigger indictment is how few chances he’s had. Never has the giant Dane held a clear lead on the Challenge or DP World Tour.
When I spoke to a Danish journalist ahead of Norgaard’s rookie DP World Tour season, he told me that the player and his team were hopeful that the rise in grade would finally see him flourish. The idea was that generally more difficult, often longer golf courses, which demanded a certain level of ball-striking quality, ought to expose those who might otherwise rescue themselves with their short-games while favouring him. They were correct.
Now, for the second year running he’ll have a fine opportunity to deliver on his enormous potential in the British Masters. Twelve (OK, almost 14) months ago, he missed an extremely short putt when seemingly in control and eventually fell from first to seventh. Now, he gets an even better chance after a couple of long putts and a host of quality shots helped him to pull clear on Saturday, by the end of which the lead was four.
For a while, though, the lead was six and looked like it might be extended to seven, but pre-tournament selection Thriston Lawrence came alive over the closing four holes and Norgaard, after dropping in another lengthy putt at the 16th, made a messy bogey at the par-five 17th. How quickly six became three, but Norgaard had one last spell to cast with that putter-turned-wand and capped a round of 64 with a ninth birdie.
Had he bogeyed the brutal 18th instead, we’d have had the opportunity to have a decent cover-shot at perhaps a shade bigger than even-money. Instead, that birdie means he’s a 1/2 shot in places and while we’ve a good cushion for the Lawrence place money, I don’t imagine many will be keen to reinvest it early and eke a bit more out of the likely Norgaard-Lawrence one-two.
There is definitely a chance the man in front toils, because we’ve seen him do it when he’s hit the front during a final round. It’s also highly unlikely that he putts anything like as well as he did on Saturday, so if Lawrence can apply some early pressure, then it’ll be game on. After all, it’s several years since Norgaard won, but just a few days since Lawrence did.
Given the situation and the prices, the only recommendation can be no bet in the outright market and to see what Sunday brings. If you’re not yet involved, then the only realistic option is to back Lawrence and hope Norgaard wobbles.
Three-ball selections
The player I’d be most keen to oppose in the final round is Yuto Katsuragawa, who we’re against in the top Japanese market already. That’s currently tied, our selection Rikuya Hoshino now favourite at 23/20 but Keita Nakajima not yet beaten from just two behind in a three-way battle.
Katsuragawa finished his third round 5-5-5-7 but even more concerning is how poorly he drove the ball. From the very first tee he was all over the place and if anything he got worse as the day went on, missing fairways at the third, fourth, fifth and sixth, latterly finding water, then at the ninth. The fact he laid up on the 10th, where the tee was forward and some players could reach with an iron, surely says a lot about his confidence.
From the 11th he hit just one of the final six fairways and some of his misses were alarming, particular at the 16th with a big slice, before he overcorrected and pulled it off the following tee. More of the same and he’ll struggle to make a competitive score, so confidence in Hoshino landing the money is pretty high.
As for his three-ball, with Angel Hidalgo relying on his putter and also having finished off his round poorly, JORDAN SMITH looks a strong favourite. The classy Englishman hasn’t been at his best this summer but his long-game has been right back on track this week, and a few putts dropped on Saturday.
I’ll double him with MATTHIAS SCHWAB, who is very effective around the Belfry and similar courses. He’s accurate off the tee and, at his best, a brilliant iron player, whose putter has been solid enough so far.
He didn’t arrive in the best of form but has been missing cuts by narrow margins and his performances in Italy and Germany earlier this summer are particularly relevant given the nature of those tree-lined courses.
Grouped with two Englishmen, we’re getting a nice price yet Matthew Baldwin’s putter is likely to cool, and Harry Hall isn’t a player I’d be running scared of. He can be highly erratic and while his short-game is deadly, the nature of the Brabazon course means we’ll have plenty in our favour by siding with the fairways-and-greens Schwab.
Certainly, BoyleSports’ opening 9/4 looks generous and the same firm are 6/1 the double. For a supplementary interest alongside Lawrence, that’s a price well worth taking, with Sky Bet’s 11/2-ish also fine. Anything around the 5/1 mark will do nicely.
Posted at 1840 BST on 31/08/24
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