On this week’s Sporting Life Racing Podcast our team were asked whether they were for or against Grey Dawning in the Betfair Chase?
Ed Chamberlin – It will be great for the sport
It feels like the Premier League title race is in the John Durkan on Sunday, and this is the Championship title race with some horses trying to get into that battle for the top division.
It’s an interesting race nonetheless and the good news is it’s going to get warmer on Saturday then the rain will arrive and the meeting will be on, but it could soften the ground dramatically through the day on Saturday.
Bravemansgame? ‘Not for me, Clive’ from what I saw at Wetherby, I think the ground will go against Hewick, if Capodanno wins that would be quite depressing for these British hopes given we’ve then got to do battle with the other lot from the John Durkan.
The spring-heeled Ahoy Senor, I loved the analogies about Ben Stokes and Ian Botham and hopefully he’ll be hitting it to the boundary rather than the slips on Saturday, but you really don’t know what he’s going to do. Royale Pagaille will love the ground but in my position with ITV, I desperately need Grey Dawning to win this.
I think the sport would love Grey Dawning to win too because he’s the one horse that could get into that Premier League bracket I think, and he’s an absolutely gorgeous galloping grey that the general public could latch onto and absolutely love.
If he wins the Betfair Chase it will be great for the sport and I just hope he’s cherry-ripe for his first run.
Graham Cunningham – A massive race in it’s own right
Grey Dawning has a swagger about him and might as well go out in Union Jack colours this weekend because have a look at the Gold Cup market… I think he’s the only British horse at under 33/1, Corach Rambler is in there in one or two lists and he retired about five months ago!
At this stage Grey Dawning is the only viable British Gold Cup contender but we shouldn’t forget this is a massive race in it’s own right. Are you inclined to think he’s a worthy short-price favourite? I’m warming to Ahoy Senor being an interesting player.
He’s never been to Haydock but with those less-demanding fences nowadays, he might be very well suited to the place.
Billy Nash – He could develop into a Gold Cup horse
I think if there’s a Gold Cup horse in the race it’s clearly Grey Dawning. The ground has to be a concern for Hewick. He’s won six or eight races and every time it’s been on ground Timeform has described as good or good to soft. If it gets any worse than that then his chances are severely hampered even though he goes there in good form having run very well at Down Royal.
We haven’t seen Capodanno for a while and my suspicion with him is he’s better in the second-half of the season and I don’t know if this has been plan-A with him all along. It looks like it was a bit of an after-thought and the John Durkan looked a more likely starting point. He’s probably better on better ground too and while I can see him running a fine race, I’d be surprised if he was good enough to win it.
Limerick Lace is the interesting one. I fancied her in the Grand National and things just didn’t go her way, she just got stuck in a bit of traffic early on in the race and just never got competitive. Now, she has loads to find on the figures but was progressing well last year and is totally unexposed at this sort of trip.
Most of her running over fences has been over two-and-a-half but I don’t think three miles is a problem for her, she definitely stays, was second in a Troytown Chase last year, but while I can see her running well I think this is all about Grey Dawning. He’s potentially far and away the best horse in the race and I’d like to see him win it. He could develop into a Gold Cup horse and nothing else in here will.
David Johnson – You can be pretty sure he’s going to run his race
I’m not as keen on Grey Dawning as some are. He is the ‘great white hope’ that everyone is looking towards to step forward but his form from last year is just starting to look a little ropey.
He was impressive in the Turners at Cheltenham but was beaten at Aintree next time and Ginny’s Destiny didn’t do much for the form last weekend.
You’ve got a horse in here in Royale Pagaille who might not be a genuine top-notcher but he did win the race last year. He’s a high-160s performer at Haydock, you can be pretty sure he’s going to run his race and the ground is going to come right for him.
With regards Grey Dawning, I don’t think you’d say at the moment he’s any better than a high-150s horse. He’s going to have go and prove he is that high-160s horse to go and win this, and at the prevailing odds I’m happy to back Royale Pagaille and say to the favourite ‘you have to come and surpass this standard’.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
