The eight best bets to win this year’s British Open

First, here’s a look at the general makeup of recent British Open winners.

• Ten of the past 12 winners had a previous top-10 at the British Open, including Harman last year.
• Sixteen of the past 23 British Open winners had a victory in the same season entering that year’s tournament. Only one of those 23 — long-shot Ben Curtis at the 2003 British Open — didn’t have at least two top-10 finishes in the season entering the British Open. So we’re looking for someone with a win or at least two top 10s this year.
• Nine of the past 12 winners had a top-20 finish in at least one of their previous two major appearances.
• Each of the past 12 winners had won a major or finished second at a major in his career.
• Ten of the past 12 winners had at least one top-10 finish in his previous three tournaments.
• Since 2000, only two British Open winners ranked worse than 55th in the Official World Golf Ranking (Curtis and Darren Clarke in 2011).

Before we get to the golfers I think can win, I’ll address three golfers who won’t be on my betting card this week, even though they match all or most of the above trends. One of them is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Fading a guy who’s won six times in his last 10 tournaments, one of them the Masters, is obviously a risky proposition, but there’s too much variance involved in the British Open to bet such an overwhelming favorite (+450 odds): All it takes is one tee time on the bad side of the always fluctuating Scottish weather and your bet is shot. Plus, Scheffler spoke during the U.S. Open — where he barely made the cut and finished 41st — about how he struggled to wrap his head around the uncertainty of Pinehurst’s waste areas, and he’ll find a similar situation if he misses the fairway at Troon.

Another golfer I won’t be betting is U.S. Open winner Bryson DeChambeau (+1400), who has only one finish better than a tie for 33rd in six British Open appearances (at St. Andrews, where being wayward off the tee usually isn’t an issue). Tee-shot accuracy is much more crucial at Troon, and DeChambeau is not consistent enough in that department for me to bet him. He’s also lost strokes around the green in his last three LIV starts, and as we’ll see, that tends to be crucial at the British Open.

And finally, I’m steering clear of Ludvig Aberg to win the tournament at +1400 odds. Since making his debut as a professional at the 2023 Canadian Open, the 24-year-old Swede has 12 rounds of 64 or better, more than anyone else over that span (yes, even Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, who each have 10 such rounds since then). But he’s also been awful on Sundays, failing to top 70 in the fourth round in every tournament since the Masters. So I’ll steer clear until he proves he can wrap things up.

With all that throat-clearing out of the way, here’s a look at some golfers to target with your British Open wagers. All odds taken Monday from DraftKings Sportsbook.

It seems almost statistically impossible that McIlroy hasn’t won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship, and he’s done nothing but excel at the British Open since he last won the claret jug (also in 2014). McIlroy, who’s 6 for 6 in our trends, has finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight British Opens, including a tie for fifth at Troon in 2016. A win this weekend would make for a nice storyline after McIlroy’s calamitous miss at the U.S. Open, and he obviously has the tools to do it, leading the PGA Tour in total driving (a measure that combines distance and accuracy off the tee) and ranking 12th in scrambling, an important ability at Troon (see below).

Schauffele, who fits all six of our prerequisites, has probably been the most dominant PGA Tour golfer not named Scottie Scheffler this season, with his PGA Championship breakthrough and nine other top-10 finishes. He also leads the PGA Tour in scrambling, which is a key asset at Royal Troon: When the course hosted the 2016 British Open, all seven golfers who finished in the top 5 ranked 17th or better in scrambling (winner Henrik Stenson was seventh and second-place Phil Mickelson was first). In 2004 at Troon, six of the eight players who finished seventh or better ranked in the top 12 in scrambling (Mickelson, who finished third that year, was again first in scrambling). Justin Leonard ranked second on the PGA Tour in scrambling in 1997, the year of his British Open win at Troon. Schauffele also ranks seventh in par-5 scoring average, and attacking Troon’s three par 5s will be crucial this week.

Morikawa won the British Open in his tournament debut in 2021 but has missed the cut in his past two ventures across the pond, so this is more of a form play than anything else. Morikawa’s tie for fourth at the Scottish Open was his sixth top-1o finish in his last 10 tournaments, and he’s gaining strokes across the board after some early-season woes with his putter and wedges. Morikawa is a player who seems to crumble if it’s at all windy, but the forecast doesn’t call for imposing breezes off the Firth of Clyde this week, and that means he’s worth a look to win another claret jug.

Hatton won the LIV Golf event in Nashville in late June and then finished third at last weekend’s LIV tournament in Spain, two of his six top-1o finishes this year (another was at the Masters). He also was a respectable-enough T-26 at the U.S. Open even though he had one of his worst putting performances in recent memory. It’s a fixable problem for Hatton, who generally is a good putter and has a good track record at the British Open, with four top-20 finishes (three of them in the last four years). Among them was a tie for fifth in 2016, the last time Troon hosted the tournament.

Here we go again putting our faith in Finau, who has just one finish better than a tie for 15th in his last 13 major appearances. But his British Open history has been solid, with two top 10s and four top 20s, including a tie for 18th at Troon in his Open debut in 2016. This season, Finau enters in sizzling form, with three straight top-8 finishes entering the tournament, one of them a tie for third at the U.S. Open. He also has finished no worse than 18th in six of his last eight tournaments. Finau, who nearly went 6 for 6 on our trends (his best major finish is third place), has been above average in every department except driving accuracy, and so long as he can keep things out of the gorse, he’s could easily contend. He also leads the PGA tour in par-5 birdie-or-better percentage.

It seems like few people are talking about the season Matsuyama is having, even with his victory at the elite-field Genesis in February and the five other top 12s or better that have followed, one of them a tie for sixth at the U.S. Open. The 2021 Masters champion’s British Open record hasn’t been exceptional, with only one top 10 in his maiden tournament in 2013, but he’s second on the PGA Tour in scrambling this season.

Rai needed a superhuman final round on Sunday at the Scottish Open to even squeeze into the tournament and he came through, shooting a 7-under-par 63 to tie for fourth and punch his ticket to Troon. It was the third straight top 10 for the Englishman, who leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy. Rai doesn’t have a whole lot of major-championship experience, appearing in only six grand slams, but he tied for 19th at the U.S. Open this year and matched that finish at the 2021 British Open. If you’re looking for a long shot, or a top-10 or top-20 wager, you could do much worse than Rai.

Last year, a short- but accurate-hitting University of Georgia product came from well down the odds board to win the British Open despite only limited major-championship pedigree. Why not make it two such golfers in a row, with Henley trying to replicate Harman’s grand feat from a year ago at Royal Liverpool. Henley has only two top-10 finishes in 39 major-championship appearances, but both of them were either this season or last season, the latest being a tie for seventh at the U.S. Open. Henley ranks 10th in driving accuracy and 26th in scrambling in PGA Tour play this season, and he has five top-12 finishes since March.

And here’s one more idea that doesn’t involve picking a winner: Over the past two years, 23 golfers have finished in the top 10 at the Scottish Open and then gone on to play in the British Open the next week. Only two of those golfers failed to make the cut at the British Open (Alex Smalley and Rasmus Hojgaard in 2022). So you could swing for the fences and bet all 14 golfers who finished top 10 at this year’s Scottish Open to make the cut this week, either separately or as a parlay: Robert Macintyre, Adam Scott, Romain Langasque, Rai, McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Morikawa, Aberg, Richard Mansell, Wyndham Clark, Alex Noren, Victor Perez and Corey Conners.