UK supermarket sales set to top £13bn in December

UK supermarket sales are set to surpass £13bn in December for the first time, according to fresh data from Kantar on Tuesday, as shoppers geared up for the Christmas season.

Grocery spending over the four weeks to 1 December increased 2.5%, the industry data specialist said, with robust demand for premium lines and festive essentials.

It said the rising cost of Christmas was a key factor, with the average cost of a Christmas dinner for four reaching £32.57, a 6.5% increase from last year.

The rise had been driven primarily by higher prices for turkey and traditional vegetables.

Overall grocery inflation, however, remained relatively stable at 2.6%, as Kantar said retailers focussed on low pricing strategies over multi-buy promotions.

“Monday 23 December is likely to be the single busiest day for the supermarkets this year, although there are clear signs that shoppers are already stocking up their cupboards,” said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar.

“The proportion of spending on premium own label products reached 5% over the latest four weeks and we expect it to climb even higher in December to nearly 7%.

“Sales on promotion reached 30% in November, the highest since Christmas last year.”

McKevitt said it was retailer price cuts, often accessed through loyalty cards, that were driving that.

“Shoppers are grabbing the chance to spend that little bit more than usual on Christmas specials, and champagne, wine and spirits saw the biggest levels of buying on deal.”

Looking at individual retailers, Tesco led the market, achieving its highest share since December 2017 at 28.1%, up from 27.4% in 2023.

Its sales grew 5.2% over the 12 weeks to 1 December .

Sainsbury’s also performed strongly, increasing its market share to 15.9% and posting a 4.7% rise in sales.

Together, the UK’s two largest grocers now accounted for 44% of the market.

Online shopping continued to gain traction, with Ocado reporting an 8.7% sales increase, outpacing the broader online grocery market, which grew by 3.6%.

Shoppers spent £4.2bn online over the 12-week period, reflecting sustained interest in digital channels.

Among brick-and-mortar retailers, Lidl was the fastest-growing, with a 6.6% sales increase and a market share climb to 7.7%.

Nearly 10% more shoppers visited Lidl compared to the same period last year.

Aldi maintained its position with a 10.3% market share, while Morrisons saw a 2.0% rise in sales, aided by strong online growth and higher average transaction values.

Asda held a 12.3% share of the market, while Waitrose grew slightly ahead of the overall market with a 2.6% increase in sales, holding a 4.4% share.

Iceland and Co-op maintained steady performances, with shares of 2.2% and 5.5%, respectively.

“Just under one in three households, at 32%, bought food, drink and other groceries to have at home from M&S during the 12 weeks to 1 December and looking at grocery sales alone, spending at M&S rose by 10.4%,” Fraser McKevitt added.

Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.